Global Inflation
…..with broadly balanced Inflation. India is in a much better position vis-à-vis the last decade.
The Emergence of EM middle class
The middle class is claimed to be the ‘bird of gold’. India would soon have a middle class that is proportionately as large as that of the US today. It is both private consumption and saving, fueled by the middle class, which drives growth.
Don’t underestimate the Power of ‘Interest Rates
What is the most important factor when analyzing a stock? Earnings? Margins? Competition? No. It's actually expected Interest rate in the economy.
In a rising rate environment, cash flows gets discounted at a higher rate thereby affecting their NPV i.e. Net present value.
Wondering what happened wrong with most start ups since 2021. Just one thing - their NPV declined in a rising rate environment and they were unable to raise funds at desired valuations.
(Source: Jamie Dimon's 2022 letter to Shareholders)
India’s new trade policy aims to promote rupee trade
The South Asian nation is prepared to trade in rupees with nations facing a shortage of dollars so as to "disaster-proof" them and effectively boost its exports. The move could help promote India’s trade with South Asian countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh that are grappling with a shortage of dollars. India is also holding discussions on trading in rupees with larger trading partners, including key oil suppliers Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Trade experts say moves to promote the Indian rupee as an alternative to the dollar and currencies like the euro gained momentum after Western sanctions on Russia.
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